Agribusiness | 郑志浩 等：预测中国粮食需求结构的变化【转】

“三农学术”阅读提示：

• 一般每天早上6：00更新

• 除日常推送外，建议通过文末和菜单汇总进行分类浏览

• 热忱欢迎投稿与反馈：邮箱 [e-mail]，微信 18801029736

————

摘要谷歌简单翻译（请以英文为准）：

通过使用a two‐stage almost ideal demand system–quadratic almost ideal demand system model 以及2000-2012省级混合和时间序列数据，分别对城市和农村居民分别估算完整的需求系统。用估计的收入需求弹性和人口统计学变量来预测2030年中国粮食需求结构的变化。本研究结果表明，随着人均收入的进一步增长，城市化和人口老龄化继续呈上升趋势，支出份额中家庭外食品支出将上升、家庭内食品支出将下降。家庭内谷物预算份额预计将持续下降，而家庭食品预算份额则为动物制品和水果会有所上升。因此，中国的粮食安全已经转变为饲料粮安全。

A complete demand system is estimated separately for urban and rural residents using a two‐stage almost ideal demand system–quadratic almost ideal demand system model and pooled provincial and time‐series data from 2000 to 2012. The estimated demand elasticities with respect to income and demographic variables are then used to predict the changes in the structure of food demand in China for the year 2030. Results of this study suggest that, as per capita incomes grow further while both urbanization and population aging continue their upward trends, the shares of expenditures on foods away from home are expected to rise while the shares of spending on foods at home would decline, and that at‐home food budget shares of grains are expected to continue decreasing whereas at‐home food budget shares of foods with animal origins and fruits would be on the rise. Thus, food security in China has been transformed into feed grain security.

出处：

Zhihao Zheng, Shida R. Henneberry, Yinyu Zhao, Ying Gao. Predicting the changes in the structure of food demand in China. Agribusiness. 2019; 35: 301– 328. 

https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21592

——END

相关阅读：